Global bond, stock and cryptocurrency markets are eagerly awaiting the Fed’s interest rate decision today and the statements of the institution’s chairman Jerome Powell. In fact, according to experts, it is out of the question for the Fed to cut or raise interest rates, but Powell’s statements after the announcement of the decision are of great importance.

In fact, interest rate cuts have been expected in the markets since the banking crisis last year, but Powell and Fed branch presidents have been saying for a long time that it is much more important to leave interest rates unchanged and higher on the grounds that inflation has not fallen sufficiently.

Expectation not even 1%

According to the “CME FedWatch Tool”, a tool used by analysts and economists to forecast short-term interest rates, there is not even a 1% chance that the Fed will cut rates this evening. Markets are 99.4% likely to expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged this evening.

New dot-plot to be announced

On the other hand, the dot-plot chart, which will show the Fed members’ forecasts for the interest rate trajectory, will also be updated this evening. Dot-plot graphs are released in 4 out of 8 meetings held annually. In tonight’s update of the chart, which is released in March, June, September and December, it will be seen when Fed members expect the earliest interest rate cuts.

In the last dot-plot chart (March), it was seen that most of the members expected interest rates to fall below 5% in 2024. However, members may reduce their expectations for a rate cut in 2024 due to persistently high inflation.