The highly anticipated CPI data was announced in the US. Annual inflation increased by 2.9% in July. Expectations were 3.0% for some institutions and 2.9% for others. The monthly inflation increase was 0.2%. Expectations were also in this direction. The increase in core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, was 3.2%. The increase here was also the slowest since March 2021. As is known, the Fed has been pointing to the 2% inflation level for interest rate cuts for a long time.

50 basis points decreased in probability

After the figures came in, investors continued to take a rate cut in September as a certainty, while the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut decreased significantly. According to the CME Fed WatchTool, which is based on futures trading, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at the meeting on September 18 was 41.5%. This rate was 52.5% before the inflation data. Expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut stand at 58.5%. There is currently no possibility of an interest rate cut.

Bitcoin did not react to the figures

On the other hand, Bitcoin remained silent after the announcement of the data. The largest cryptocurrency is trading around $61,150 in the minutes when the news was written. Ounce of gold is at $2470 and ounce of silver is at $27.7.