FTX calculation from K33 analysts: How much will it come to the crypto market?

The FTX payment plan, officially approved by the US bankruptcy court yesterday evening, also excited crypto investors. While expectations for cash payments are that a certain amount will re-enter the crypto market, K33 analysts calculated that this money will be around $2.4 billion.

FTX calculation from K33 analysts: How much will it come to the crypto market?

The official decision on FTX payments, which has been expected for years, was finally made yesterday evening. As expected and despite many objections, it was decided to make payments in cash. In other words, regardless of the cryptocurrencies in the accounts, users will be paid in cash, regardless of the value of the account during bankruptcy.

When will it start?

Crypto research company K33 Research, which has previously published some analyses and reports on FTX payments, made important predictions on the subject. In the company’s report shared on Tuesday, it was stated that payments are expected to spread to the end of this quarter and the 1st quarter of 2025:

“Debtors have 60-day timeframes to pay individual customers with creditors below $50,000. We estimate this figure to be approximately $1.2 billion. Payments totalling $9 billion, which will be received by those with larger amounts of creditors, will take place in February 2025.”

$4 billion not expected to return

One of the most frequently asked questions of those who expect an increase in cryptocurrencies is how much of this money will return to the crypto market … Even whether it will return … K33 analysts have made some calculations on this issue.

Stating that $3.9 billion of the demands between $14.4 and $16.3 billion were purchased by credit funds, analysts stated that they do not expect this amount to return to crypto.

How much comes to crypto?

    33% of the total demand; Stating that companies in countries subject to Western sanctions, people who do not perform KYC verification and other necessary transactions, K33 analysts wrote that they think that investors in this ratio will not receive payments again.

    After all these calculations, the analysts, who stated that there is a part of $8 billion left, said that they expect 20% to 40% of this amount, ie $2.4 billion, to return to the crypto market:

    ‘FTX’s customer base consisted of an audience that likes to take risks in crypto and knows crypto, but we expect this money to come in multiple waves, piece by piece. Therefore, the impact of the $2.4 billion section on the crypto market will be softer.’

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