Benjamin Cowen, known for his cryptocurrency market analysis on Youtube and X, said that Bitcoin needs to reach its 200-day simple moving average again for the uptrend to continue.
“It will determine whether it will rise in the 4th quarter”
Giving examples from past cycles and bull seasons, Cowen said:
“Bitcoin is currently below its 200-day simple moving average. It saw the bottom of this on July 5th. I think where we will be in Q4 this year will be determined by how quickly this level can be achieved or not.
- In 2013, Bitcoin fell below this average. On July 5th, it bottomed again, but then it slowly climbed back up and there was a rally in Q4.
- In 2016, BTC broke below this average in August. But it bounced back quickly here too and there was a year-end rally.
- In 2019, it broke below the 200-day simple moving average in September. And it eventually failed to reach it within a certain period of time. Finally, Bitcoin fell in Q4.
It’s hard to predict what will happen here. I’ll keep looking at the 200-day simple moving average. The sooner Bitcoin reaches that level, the more likely we’ll see a rally in Q4. The longer it takes, the more likely we’ll see a decline, as we did in 2019. Then the rally will come, maybe a year later.”
“Not everything can be carbon copied”
Referring to his comparisons with past cycles, Cowen said, “It is always easy to make a comparison with past years. Just remember that every cycle is slightly different. So I never think, ‘what year are we going to have a carbon copy of in the next cycle’.”
The 200-day simple moving average, an important indicator for determining long-term trends in Bitcoin, is currently around $58,758.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, has risen from the level of $55,000 in the morning hours to $57,000 at noon…