US financial analyst Benjamin Cowen stated that a new downward movement in Bitcoin may come in the summer months, but after that, the main upward movement may begin.

Stating that the general mass takes the 2020 halving as an example, but the period we are in reflects the 2016 halving, Cowen said that after a decline that may scare investors, a price rise may come.

“First it scared, then the rise came”

Stating that in the halving in 2016, especially in the first place, there was a rise in the first place, but then a sharp decline of 20% was seen, Cowen stated that this seriously scared people and that there was a rise after the market exits:

“In the first halving, Bitcoin did not go below it was at the halving. In fact, It essentially up only after that and we never took off that price. In the second halving, it was going to do exact the same thing. Basically up only after the halving. After, we went up a little bit about 5% and then Bitcoin sold off by about 20%. Actually about 25% if you take from where it had rallied to but as measured from the from the halving, it had gone down about 20% or so. So, going into the 2016 halving, everyone thought it was just be up only, and instead, we had a 20% drop, it scared everyone off, and then it went up. So then, after the third halving, eveyone was looking at what was happened in 2016, They are like, “There’s going to be post-halving dip.” We had a third halving crycle and, we never went below that price after.”

“It could not go above that level for 3.5 months. It could happen now”

Cowen, citing the “post-halving return metric, which measures the price movement after the halving, stated that in the halving in 2016, the price could not rise above this metric for 3.5 months and that the same is likely to happen in this period. This metric shows the ratio of Bitcoin’s current price to the price in the halving. Cowen made the following statements:

“If you look at 2016, which might be relevant to compare to, you can see that Bitcoin didn’t durably get back above an ROI of one until about three and a half months after the halving. And I don’t know if it’s going to play out like that or not, but you can see that that would be more evidence of a summer low. That could potentially be more evidence for a summer low if you look at Bitcoin’s ROI as a measure from the halving and compare it to the 2016 cycle.”