Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, gold, silver, stocks and bond investors… The whole world is focused on the US inflation data to be announced today… The July expectation for inflation, which increased by 3.0% in June, below expectations, is quoted as 2.9% for some analysts and 3.0% for others.

It will be decisive for the Fed

Entering 2024, economists expected the Fed to make 6 to 8 rate cuts this year, but higher than expected data in March (3.5%) and April (3.4%) postponed the cuts. Experts believe that we have reached the end of this period and it is certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points in September.

If the inflation rate, which came in at 3.0% in June, comes in lower than expected or expected this month (July), there will be no question marks in mind for September.

The expectation of an interim cut has disappeared

The sharp declines in world markets last week had led to questions such as “Will the Fed cut interest rates at an interim meeting?”. However, the recovery in the past few days had cut the voices of recession and eliminated the expectation of an interim meeting.

For about two years, the Fed has been giving an inflation target of 2% for the start of interest rate cuts.

On the other hand, investors are currently expecting a 100% rate cut for September… A 50 basis point cut at the Fed meeting on 18 September is priced at 52.5%, while a 25 basis point cut is priced at 47.5%.

PPI also came in lower than expected

Although not as important as the CPI in the US, the PPI, which is one of the data that experts pay attention to, did not experience a feared situation yesterday. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 0.1% on a monthly basis, below the expectation of 0.2%. The annual increase was 2.2%, again below expectations. The increase in June was 2.6%.

Bitcoin is trading around $61 thousand in the minutes the news was written.